Lioness Publications LLC

Predictive Probabilities  Research 

Risk/Yield Report

The Risk/Yield Report provides a quick look at the trends for a given year.  The trends in the report are based on 25 points which are taken during the year.  The points are measured on the 1st of the month and on the 15th of the month.  The first point is January 1st and the last is December 30th. 


The top half of the graph is the Yield portion and the bottom half is the Risk portion.  If most of the activity is in the Yield portion for the year, then most likely, the year could see achievements with barriers melting away.  If most of the activity is in the Risk portion for the year, then most likely the year will be challenging with obstacles presenting themselves.


However, it is more likely that the graphs will have ups and downs during the year and may resemble a roller coaster.  In cases like this, the same premise holds true, movement (or more movement) into Yield can be seen as positive while movement (or movement) into Risk can be seen as adverse.


There are 2 different graphs - The Risk/Yield is the primary graph and this displays the entire Yield/Risk range.  The Delta Risk/Yield is the Delta (difference) between the Yield and Risk and provides an easier to read graph which can identify the trend at particular points during the year. is.  While this chart is easier to read, it can sometimes be too discouraging/encouraging as it ignores the levels of the factors and simply provides the difference.    

The Delta Risk/Yield has two trends being tracked - one is short term (green line) noted as Trsnaient and the other is long term (black line) noted as Core.  Long term would be trends that encompass events like: having a baby, losing a job, getting a promotion, moving across the country, buying/selling a house to name just a few. Short term trends would be events like having a car break down, having differences with co-workers, getting a raise, starting a relationship - the time span of these events typically resolve within a few days to a month. 
     
Clinton 2016 Risk/Yield Report
Hillary Clinton's Risk/Yield Report for 2016 indicates predominately Yield trends throughout the year.
Clinton 2016 Delta Risk/Yield Report
Hillary Clinton's 2016 Delta Risk/Yield report indicates that her long-term trend throughout the year is in the Yield portion of the chart.  The short-term trends fluctuate throughout the year but it is notable to point out that they moved into Risk at Election Time.
Trump 2016 Risk/Yield Report
Donald Trump's 2016 Risk/Yield report indicates that his trends are similar to a wave - moves up and then down.  There is no consistent trend thru the entire year.
Trump 2016 Delta Risk/Yield Report
Donald Trump's 2016 Delta Risk/Yield indicates that he will have both positive periods and negative periods throughout the year.  It is notable to indicate that the December 2016 period appears to head into Risk for both the short term and the long term trends.